Claim
A report published by Shabelle Media Network on September 21, 2026, linked the Somali Disaster Management Agency chairman’s visit to Baidoa with preparations for the anticipated effects of a “Super El Niño,” including unusually heavy rainfall and possible flooding. Shabelle Media Read the original Shabelle Media Network report
Verdict
SUPPORTED IN SUBSTANCE, WITH CONTEXT.
Official climate forecasts support concerns about a strengthening El Niño and an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across parts of Somalia. However, the forecasts do not guarantee that flooding will occur in every location, and the term “Super El Niño” should not be treated as a separate official classification on the basis of the sources reviewed.
Full Text
On September 21, 2026, Shabelle Media Network reported that Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) Chairman Mahmoud Moallin Abdulle had arrived in Baidoa, the capital of South West State, as authorities strengthened preparations for possible humanitarian emergencies associated with heavy rainfall and flooding. Shabelle Media
According to Shabelle, the visit was intended to strengthen preparedness and coordination between SoDMA and South West State authorities ahead of the anticipated effects of what the outlet described as a “Super El Niño.”
The report said the weather pattern could bring unusually heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding and other humanitarian emergencies in vulnerable areas. Shabelle Media
Somali Fact Check examined the scientific basis of this warning using forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Our review focused on whether official forecasts support concerns about unusually wet conditions and increased flood risk—not on independently verifying every detail of the SoDMA chairman’s visit.
Verification
1. WMO confirms a strengthening El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on September 3, 2026, that El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen further.
WMO said forecasts showed a near-100% likelihood that El Niño conditions would persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027. It also warned that a very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns and contribute to extreme weather. World Meteorological Organization Read WMO’s September 2026 El Niño update
This supports the underlying concern that authorities should prepare for potentially significant weather impacts.
However, WMO’s wording is important: it describes the possibility and risks associated with a very strong El Niño. This does not mean every anticipated local impact is certain to occur.
2. ICPAC specifically forecasts wetter conditions for Somalia
More specific evidence for Somalia comes from ICPAC, the regional climate centre serving the Greater Horn of Africa.
In its August 18 regional outlook, ICPAC forecast wetter-than-normal conditions during the October–December 2026 rainy season as El Niño strengthens.
Most importantly, ICPAC reported a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall over central to southern Somalia, as well as southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya. It also forecast a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central and southern Somalia. ICPAC Read ICPAC’s October–December 2026 climate outlook
ICPAC’s September–November seasonal forecast separately shows above-normal rainfall expected across parts of Somalia and several other countries in the region. ICPAC
These forecasts provide strong scientific support for disaster-preparedness measures ahead of the rainy season.
3. A 90% rainfall forecast does not mean a 90% chance of flooding everywhere
There is an important distinction.
The 90% figure refers to the probability of enhanced rainfall across the specified forecast area. It should not be interpreted as meaning that every town in Somalia has a 90% chance of flooding.
Seasonal climate forecasts describe probabilities over broad geographical areas. Actual flooding depends on several additional factors, including the amount and intensity of rainfall, river levels, soil conditions, drainage, topography and local vulnerability.
ICPAC itself advises that its seasonal forecast should be used alongside weekly and monthly forecasts, climate-monitoring products and information from national meteorological authorities. ICPAC
Conclusion
The warning reported by Shabelle Media Network is supported in substance by official climate forecasts.
WMO confirms that El Niño is established and expected to strengthen, while ICPAC forecasts a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall across central to southern Somalia during October–December 2026. World Meteorological Organization
However, these are forecasts, not guarantees of flooding. The probability of enhanced rainfall should not be presented as certainty that every affected area will experience floods.
The evidence therefore supports preparedness for unusually wet conditions and heightened weather-related risks in parts of Somalia, while reporting should clearly distinguish between forecast conditions, potential impacts and events that have actually occurred.
Sources
Shabelle Media Network — Original report, September 21, 2026
WMO — El Niño/La Niña Update, September 3, 2026
ICPAC — October–December 2026 Regional Climate Outlook
